We appear to be approaching a General Election with the most predictable outcome in recent history. Theresa May is the only leader of a mainstream national party with a net-positive approval rating and Labour looks set for the hard landing it missed in 2015. Indeed, the very reason we are having a snap general election is because the Conservative leader wants to increase her majority and the power of her hand in the Brexit negotiations and move the UK through one of the trickiest periods it has faced.
Surely no sensible Prime Minister would risk their albeit slim majority unless they were pretty sure of the outcome? On this basis it looks as though June rather than being the end is more likely to be the beginning of May.
Nevertheless, despite what the pollsters, commentators and crystal ball gazers might say the rest of us have to work in a world built on risk and uncertainty.
As we prepare ourselves and our clients for the outcome of the 2017 General Election we need to maintain a broad strategy. Whilst we would be foolish not to prepare for the most likely outcome we should also not lose sight of the wider context and future events that may follow.
Firstly, don’t forget that we live in a parliamentary democracy comprised of a number of political parties who seek to influence Government policy. Whilst Labour is facing obvious challenges – not least in the divisions between its leadership and parliamentary party – it is likely to remain Her Majesty’s Opposition. This formal and legally enshrined role brings with it a range of means by which to hold the government of the day to account through parliamentary time, the select committee system and the shadow cabinet. Any successful public affairs campaign should therefore engage with the Opposition.
The smaller parties should also not be overlooked. Whilst the SNP is likely have already hit its high water mark in terms of Westminster seats it is now a much bigger part of UK politics than it ever used to be with a whole host of policy interests beyond Scottish independence. As the third party in Westminster the SNP also has a host of parliamentary levers at its disposal including a seat on every select committee, the chairmanship of two and two questions at PMQs.
The Liberal Democrats are currently struggling to poll into double figures and whilst there is an assumption they will bounce back to some degree from a shocking 2015 result their battle for national voice could limit this to a handful of hyper-local success stories. Nevertheless, the Lib Dems are the most overtly pro-European party in British politics and in the next parliament which will be dominated by Brexit they will seek to be prominent in the debates that will shape the Brexit process.
Secondly, it’s not all about Brexit. While the snap election has been called to increased the Government’s hand in the negotiations the election will be fought on manifestos that contain a full suite of policies that will have impact across a range of sectors. At the same time as maintaining a traditional policy of reducing corporation tax the Conservatives have proven unafraid to be interventionist in sectors where they feel consumers are given a raw deal, for instance in the energy retail market. A policy the Conservatives ridiculed when it was put forward by Labour under Ed Miliband this is now a central part of its pitch to create an economy that works for all. This cross-pollination of policy shows it is important to engage with the substance of the manifestos of each party.
Thirdly, the arithmetic of the result will be important. A significantly increased majority for the Conservatives will increase the Prime Minister’s standing amongst her party. With swelled ranks Theresa May could well consider a reshuffle to strengthen her support on the front benches. Agencies will be considering the potential fallout of this as they prepare their clients for the next parliament. Likewise, while Jeremy Corbyn appears resolute that he will remain as Labour leader whatever the outcome the result will be important. If Labour fall below two hundred MPs this symbolic event could create an environment that makes it impossible for Corbyn to hang on and for a new leadership to emerge. Similarly, if Labour do better than expected we could see Corbyn remain for the long-term.
In preparing for the next parliament we should consider the most likely outcome but be careful not to ignore the wider context and the opportunities that this creates. As Ministers come and go it is often the longer-term relationships that prove most fruitful.